Our mission to calculate the 2020 presidential outcomes for all 435 congressional districts nationwide hits Iowa, the place Republicans had a robust 12 months. You’ll be able to find our complete data set here, which we’re updating constantly because the precinct-level election returns we want for our calculations turn into obtainable.
Regardless of preelection polls exhibiting an in depth race, Donald Trump received Iowa 53-45 over Joe Biden, which was solely a small enchancment for Democrats from Trump’s 52-42 victory in 2016 in what was as soon as an especially aggressive state. Trump additionally as soon as once more carried all four of the Hawkeye State’s congressional districts (you possibly can find a larger version of our map here), although there was one notable shift.
Trump captured the third District within the Des Moines space solely 49.1-49.0, which was decidedly weaker than his 49-45 exhibiting in 2016. That transfer to the left may additionally have made all of the distinction for freshman Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne, who beat former Republican Rep. David Young 49-48 in a rematch of their 2018 battle.
Sadly for Workforce Blue, although, the first and 2nd Districts in jap Iowa voted about the identical on this 12 months’s presidential race as they did in 2016. Certainly, each seats supported Trump 51-47 4 years after they every backed him by an similar 49-45 unfold. Republican state Rep. Ashley Hinson unseated freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer 51-49 within the 1st District, whereas as of this writing, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds a six-vote lead over Democrat Rita Hart within the Democratic-held 2nd District to the south.
Trump additionally romped to a 63-36 victory within the 4th District within the western a part of the state, which was much like his 61-34 efficiency in 2016. This district hosted an unexpectedly shut race in 2018 when white nationalist Rep. Steve King held off Democrat J.D. Scholten only 50-47. Nonetheless, state Sen. Randy Feenstra unseated King on this 12 months’s Republican main, and Feenstra went on to defeat Scholten 62-38 in November.
Republicans additionally maintained control of Iowa’s state government, and in the event that they resolve to disregard many years of precedent, they’ll have the ability to draw themselves an much more favorable congressional map. Beneath state regulation, a nonpartisan company proposes maps to the state legislature, however whereas lawmakers have at all times adopted them, the GOP now can simply reject the agency’s proposals and implement their very own gerrymanders, and even repeal the statute that created the company within the first place.