A baby runs previous a wall mural depicting healthcare staff sporting face masks alongside a street in New Delhi, India on March 21, 2021.

Sajjad Hussain | AFP | Getty Photos

SINGAPORE — The Covid-19 pandemic has shaken up the rating of the world’s largest economies after sending many international locations into their worst financial recessions in latest historical past.

The USA, China, Japan and Germany nonetheless take the highest 4 spots because the world’s largest economies — however some rankings have shifted on account of the pandemic whereas one nation fell off the highest 10 checklist, in line with CNBC evaluation of the Worldwide Financial Fund’s financial forecasts.

CNBC in contrast nominal gross home product in U.S. {dollars} throughout international locations supplied within the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database.

Nominal GDP estimates the market worth of all completed items and providers produced in an financial system however does not strip out modifications in value ranges, or inflation — and might subsequently overstate or understate the actual financial worth.

Nonetheless, nominal GDP values denominated in a typical foreign money are a means of measuring and evaluating financial sizes of various international locations, and supply a glimpse of how developments — such because the pandemic — have an effect on economies otherwise.

Listed here are the most important modifications within the rating of the world’s 10 largest economies earlier than and after the Covid outbreak.

India falls behind the U.Okay.

India, which turned the world’s fifth largest financial system in 2019, slipped to sixth place behind the U.Okay. final yr.

The South Asian nation wouldn’t regain fifth place within the world financial rating till 2023, in line with CNBC evaluation of IMF information.    

India was hit by strict lockdowns final yr because the nation struggled to include the coronavirus. Its financial system was projected by the IMF to contract 8% within the fiscal yr that led to March 2021.

Whereas the fund expects India to develop 12.5% within the present fiscal yr which ends March 2022, some economists have warned that the latest surge in Covid cases may dampen the nation’s prospects. India last week overtook Brazil to change into the second worst-infected nation globally, behind solely the U.S.

“We develop much more involved that rising Covid 19 instances pose a threat to our nonetheless shallow restoration,” Financial institution of America economists wrote in a Monday report.   

The economists estimated that one month of nationwide lockdown — if imposed once more — would shave 100-200 foundation factors off India’s annual GDP.   

Brazil drops out of prime 10

Brazil went from the ninth largest financial system in 2019 to the twelfth largest final yr, turning into the one nation that fell out of the highest 10 rating.

The South American nation would keep out of the world’s 10 largest economies till no less than 2026 — the furthest IMF projection obtainable, CNBC evaluation confirmed.

Brazil has reported the third highest Covid caseload and second largest demise toll globally. However President Jair Bolsonaro — who has downplayed the virus risk — has repeatedly refused to impose a nationwide lockdown to include the coronavirus.

Sao Paulo’s health secretary reportedly wrote to the federal authorities warning of an “imminent” collapse within the state’s health-care system; whereas economists stated the Brazilian financial system would battle to recuperate.  

The financial system contracted 4.1% final yr and is forecast to develop 3.7% in 2021, in line with the IMF.

South Korea enters prime 10

Consumption has additionally change into more and more resilient to virus outbreaks, thanks partly to an increase in on-line purchasing. Nevertheless, hospitality and recreation stay very weak.

The variety of new each day infections rose this month, forcing authorities to extend social-distancing measures that embrace proscribing massive gatherings till early Could.

Regardless of the virus uncertainty, the nation’s manufacturing and export sectors stay robust, economists from consultancy Capital Economics stated in a report final week.

“Consumption has additionally change into more and more resilient to virus outbreaks, thanks partly to an increase in on-line purchasing. Nevertheless, hospitality and recreation stay very weak,” they added.

The IMF predicts the South Korean financial system may develop 3.6% this yr.