TOKYO — Underneath crisp blue skies in October 1964, Emperor Hirohito of Japan stood earlier than a reborn nation to declare the opening of the Tokyo Olympic Video games. A voice that the Japanese public had first heard announcing the country’s surrender in World Struggle II now echoed throughout a packed stadium alive with anticipation.

On Friday, Tokyo will inaugurate one other Summer season Olympics, after a year’s delay due to the coronavirus pandemic. Hirohito’s grandson, Emperor Naruhito, might be within the stands for the opening ceremony, however it will likely be barred to spectators as an anxious nation grapples with one more wave of infections.

For each Japan and the Olympic movement, the delayed 2020 Video games could symbolize much less a second of hope for the longer term than the distinct chance of decline. And to the technology of Japanese who look again fondly on the 1964 Video games, the prospect of a diminished, largely unwelcome Olympics is a grave disappointment.

“Everybody in Japan was burning with pleasure in regards to the Video games,” stated Kazuo Inoue, 69, who vividly remembers being glued to the brand new shade tv in his household’s house in Tokyo in 1964. “That’s lacking, so that could be a little unhappy.”

But the ennui is not only a matter of pandemic chaos and the quite a few scandals within the prelude to the Video games. The nation immediately, and what the Olympics symbolize for it, are vastly totally different from what they have been 57 years in the past.

The 1964 Olympics confirmed the world that Japan had recovered from the devastation of the battle and rebuilt itself as a contemporary, peaceable democracy after an period of army aggression. Highways and the bullet practice have been rushed to completion. With incomes rising, many Japanese households like Mr. Inoue’s purchased televisions to observe the Video games, the primary to be broadcast stay by satellite tv for pc across the globe.

This time round, Japan is a mature, prosperous nation. However its economic system has been stagnant for much of the past three decades, leaving rising numbers of individuals behind. One in seven youngsters stay in poverty, and plenty of staff are in contract or part-time jobs that lack stability and pay few advantages.

It’s a a lot older nation now, too. When Hirohito opened the Summer season Video games, simply 6 p.c of the inhabitants was 65 or older. Right this moment, the determine is greater than 28 p.c, and the fertility price is sort of half that of 1964. The inhabitants has been shrinking since 2008.

The 1964 Tokyo Olympics are sometimes thought to be the purpose when Japan pivoted into prosperity. Inside 4 years, Japan turned the world’s second-largest economic system, behind america, its former occupier. (It has since fallen to 3rd, behind China.) As many Japanese entered the center class, they purchased not simply televisions, however different fashionable home equipment like washing machines, fridges and vacuum cleaners.

Japan is once more approaching a turning level, one whose consequence depends upon how the federal government, firms and civil society reply to a shrinking and getting old inhabitants.

Again in 1964, there was “a way of Japan in movement and a way of a rustic with a future,” stated Hiromu Nagahara, an affiliate professor of historical past on the Massachusetts Institute of Expertise. Now, it’s “a rustic that has misplaced confidence and a rustic whose political elites really feel very intensely that lack of confidence.”

Longtime observers of Japan say it ought to revise some sclerotic practices and cultural norms. Whereas the nation’s rise as an industrial powerhouse was constructed on robust social cohesion, that side of society has tended to repress women, ethnic minorities and other groups that don’t conform to conventional expectations.

“Japan’s strengths are clear — it’s the social cloth,” stated Carol Gluck, a historian of recent Japan at Columbia College. “However that may turn into a weak point if it makes it laborious to impact change.”

“There’s plenty of potential there,” Professor Gluck added. “However the query is, will it’s grasped and realized earlier than issues get so unhealthy.”

With the worldwide highlight on Japan for the Olympics, lots of its societal warts have been uncovered.

In February, the president of the Tokyo organizing committee, Yoshiro Mori, 84, was forced to resign after saying that women talked too much in meetings, although not earlier than he acquired a staunch defense from traditionalists. In a rustic that ranks 120th out of 156 nations in a gender hole rating, many Japanese girls acknowledged his feedback as reflecting all-too-familiar attitudes.

Regardless of strain from activists to grab the Olympic second to advance gay and transgender rights in Japan, a modest invoice labeling discrimination “unacceptable” did not even get a listening to within the conservative Parliament. And this week, a composer for the opening ceremony resigned after it emerged that he had confessed to severely bullying disabled classmates at school. The Japanese Training Ministry calls bullying one of many largest social challenges in lecture rooms.

When Tokyo bid for the 2020 Video games, the prime minister on the time, Shinzo Abe, framed it as an emblem of overcome a devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in 2011. That message has been overtaken by a brand new narrative: that the Video games symbolize a worldwide effort to beat the pandemic.

The Japanese individuals, who principally oppose holding the Games, aren’t shopping for both message. The nuclear cleanup is far from complete, and the Video games are being held amid a state of emergency as coronavirus circumstances have reached a six-month excessive in Tokyo. These will increase have been compounded by every day bulletins of optimistic circumstances within the Olympic Village, reminding everybody of the enduring energy of the virus.

And with spectators barred from all however a number of occasions, there’s little upside for resorts, eating places, retailers and different companies.

“I really feel sorry for the tourism enterprise or resorts,” stated Ikuzo Tamura, 84, who offered commemorative fabric wraps within the Olympic Stadium in 1964. “They don’t have the identical alternative as we did. I don’t assume somebody ought to be blamed, however on this scenario, individuals don’t have any alternative however to endure.”

At this level, Japan’s greatest hope could also be to showcase its disaster administration abilities by pulling off the occasions with none large-scale outbreaks.

“Whether or not you agree or not with the Japanese authorities, these Video games are going forward with a really excessive diploma of danger,” stated Roy Tomizawa, creator of “1964: The Best 12 months within the Historical past of Japan.”

“It’s like Simone Biles making an attempt a double pike, a transfer that no different girl will do apart from Simone Biles,” he added. “I don’t know what number of international locations would have gone forward with this.”

Historians level out that the 1964 Video games didn’t go in addition to gauzy-eyed residents may recall. Two prime officers resigned amid public criticism of Japan’s determination to ship a crew to the 1962 Asian Video games, whose host nation, Indonesia, excluded athletes from Israel and Taiwan, stated Yuji Ishizaka, a sports activities sociologist at Nara Ladies’s College. And as much as a yr earlier than the 1964 Olympics, solely about half of the general public supported internet hosting the Video games.

Nonetheless, the hope of any Olympics is that, as soon as the Video games begin, the athletic competitors involves the fore. What individuals keep in mind greatest from 1964 is the victory of the Japanese women’s volleyball team, a gaggle of manufacturing facility staff who snatched the gold medal from the Russians; or the lads’s gymnastics crew, which received a gaggle gold medal, turning into heroes.

This yr, even with out stay audiences, the drama will nonetheless be current and televised. However it will likely be tempered.

“For athletes, for me, having spectators offers you a lot energy,” stated Shuji Tsurumi, 83, a gymnast on the 1964 crew who additionally received three particular person silver medals.

“It’s important to really feel the athlete’s breath in your pores and skin, the air within the stadium, the strain of the others round you ready for a profitable touchdown,” he added. “With out that, it’s not the identical.”

Yoshiko Kanda, a member of the victorious volleyball crew in 1964, stated that the group’s cheers have been “the most important reminder of why I used to be competing.”

“With out this sense within the air, I wager many athletes are struggling,” stated Ms. Kanda, 79, who competed beneath her single identify, Matsumura. “In 1964, the setting, the air, the sensation in society was burning with pleasure,” she added. “In comparison with the ’64 Olympics, it will likely be so lonely.”